U.S. Economy Recovery, Crude Oil Push Canadian Dollar Up

The loonie continued its rally after a day of losses as the main trading partner of Canada, the United States, is showing signs of an economic revival.

The Canadian currency has been benefiting from several international factors that are helping it to build the strongest bullish pattern in decades against the main currencies. Canada is one of the main global oil exporters, and since the demand for oil has rebounded in April, the loonie is rocketing against currencies like the greenback and the euro, helped also by the stocks rally, which add attractiveness to the Canadian dollar. After signs of economic recovery in Asia, now speculations about United States interest rate policy, are fueling demand for more risk in equities market, creating a perfect scenario for the loonie to grow stronger.

According to specialists, the current scenario for the loonie might be the most favorable in years, firstly the growing demand for oil, and now, being considered as a satellite for the U.S. economy, it is extremely likely that the loonie will remain stronger if its main trade partner finds a quick way out of recession, and signs that an eventual interest rate raise from the Federal Reserve are already having a positive impact for the Canadian currency.

Yen Continues Fall as Demand For Yield Rises

The Japanese currency had a day of losses against major currencies and higher-yielding assets as the global slump eases, improving investor’s confidence to take riskier positions.

The yen has been suffering multiple sessions of losses since the global recession gave its first signs of ending in the beginning of April, and being regarded by traders as a safe refuge for times of uncertainty and crisis, the Japanese currency lost most of the gains it posted during the worst moments of the crisis, in the last semester of the past year. The pound climbed significantly against the yen as the political crisis in the United Kingdom seems rather controlled. Australia’s dollar climbed versus the yen as an industry report showed an increase in the consumer confidence.

Currency specialists affirm that refuge currencies like the Japanese and the North American may enter an important downtrend, as risk aversion is declining, favoring emergent market currencies like the South Korean won, and commodity-linked currencies like the Australian. It is very likely that a weaken yen will follow for the next months, according to specialists, even if the Japanese economy shows relevant signs of recovery, it won’t probably be able to sustain the yen at high levels, since the outflow of investors towards higher-yielding positions abroad will tend to be much larger.

Dollar Climbs Before G-8 Meeting

After several days of losses, the greenback rebounded, ending the week with a rather neutral performance before a G-8 meeting, where Timothy Geithner may state in favor of a strong U.S. dollar.

The U. S. dollar pared its weekly losses after a Wall Street journal report affirming that the U.S. government will continue its policy to avoid bond purchases, resisting the pressure in order to control the supply of dollars. Another factor favoring the greenback is the incoming G-8 finance ministers meeting, in which speculations lead to believe that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner may suggest that a strong dollar is likely to be positive for a healthy world economic scenario. Comments in European financial organizations about the problems of a strong euro to exporters also helped the dollar to pair its weekly losses.

Analysts evaluate the speculations towards the G-8 meeting as a consequence of fundamental and technical factors moving the euro-dollar currency pair, as the market sentiment is not willing to push the euro to higher levels. A part from the problematic scenario the euro brings to the European agonizing exporting market, other factors such as the obscure future of the U.S. dollar as the main world currency make it hard to define in which direction the U.S. will point towards the next months.

South African Rand Post Gains as Emergent Markets Attractiveness Rise

The South African rand had a third consecutive day of positive performances as the global economic conditions are evidently improving, adding attractiveness to emergent market currencies.

The rand is one of the most volatile and influenced by the international world economic scenario among the most traded currencies, and a numbers of factors is helping the South African to climb since this April. Being one of the most liquid currencies available for trading, the South African rand is currently highly attractive, since interest rates in developed nations are rather low, and the economic recovery as its being perceived by traders decreased risk aversion in financial markets, adding to the already interesting profile of the rand. The current spiking oil price and this week’s U.S. reports added confidence to purchase currencies like the Brazilian Real and the South African rand, thanks to their high-yielding profile.

Analysts refer to the South African rand as a currency which is highly subjected to the international situation of the world economy. The richest African nation is a commodity exporter, without a high political influence internationally, being the domestic country’s conditions not so influential as the conditions in the United States for example. It is likely that the South African rand will remain strong as long as the investors continue their confident bullish pattern of asset purchasing.

USD/ZAR traded at 7.9808 as of 4:10 p.m. GMT this Thursday rising from a previous price of 8.1085. The rand already gained 19 percent against the dollar since the beggining of the year.